China’s role as a major financier to developing nations has shifted dramatically, with African countries now repaying more to Beijing than they receive in new loans. A new analysis by ONE Data shows that while Chinese lending has slowed sharply, debt servicing obligations remain high, creating a reversal in financial flows.

Between 2015 and 2019, Africa benefited from a $30 billion inflow of Chinese financing. But in the 2020–24 period, this turned into a $22 billion outflow, as repayments outweighed fresh lending. The report highlights that many low- and middle-income countries are experiencing similar trends, with China’s reduced appetite for new loans coinciding with rising repayment schedules.

At the same time, multilateral institutions have stepped in to fill the gap. Net financing from these lenders has surged by 124% over the past decade, now accounting for more than half of total flows. Between 2020 and 2024, they provided $379 billion in net financing, making them the dominant source of development funds once debt-service costs are factored in.

David McNair, executive director at ONE Data, said the imbalance reflects “less lending coming in, but previous lending still needing to be serviced.” He described the trend as a setback for African governments struggling to fund public services and investment, though he noted it could encourage greater domestic accountability as reliance on external finance diminishes.

The report also pointed to a broader decline in bilateral finance and private external debt, trends likely to worsen following aid cuts in 2025. The closure of the U.S. Agency for International Development and reduced allocations from other donor countries have already strained African economies, with further drops in official development assistance expected once new data becomes available.

This shift underscores the changing landscape of global development finance, with Africa increasingly dependent on multilateral institutions while grappling with the burden of past borrowing from China.